Guadalajara Chivas are the statistical favourites to win the Apertura 2026 title. A study by the firm Statiskicks, which ran 100,000 simulations of the tournament, placed the red-and-white team in first position with a 26.8 percent probability.
Statiskicks said: "realizó 100 mil simulaciones del torneo y ubicó al Guadalajara en la primera posición". Toluca appear in second place with 22.2 percent, while Cruz Azul occupy third with 15.6 percent. Club América, the classic rival who drew 2-2 with Chivas last Friday, sits fourth with a 9.0 percent chance.
These numbers arrive at a time of great solidity for the team led by Fernando Gago. Guadalajara Chivas are second in the Liga MX standings with 18 points after nine matchdays, just one point behind leaders Toluca. Their five-match unbeaten run, with three wins and two draws, underpins the confidence of the projections. The squad has scored 17 goals and conceded only eight.
Tournament projection
Behind the top four, Club Tijuana has a 4.9 percent probability. Monterrey and Querétaro, Chivas's next opponent, register 4.2 and 4.1 percent respectively. Tigres closes the group of teams with more than two percent, at 2.9. Pachuca, Pumas, León, Atlas and the rest of the teams do not exceed four percent in the simulations. It is important to remember these percentages are the result of a mathematical model and not definitive predictions.
The team now faces a week of preparation for their next home fixture. They will host Club Querétaro, fifth in the table, next Saturday, September 26. In the last meeting between the two, this past January, Chivas won 2-1. Fans can check the full season schedule on our fixtures page and the evolution of the table on standings. Forward Roberto Alvarado, with three goals, is the team's top scorer this campaign.
This story first appeared at Record MX
